On Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that the global gross domestic product (GDP) would need at least two years to return to the level pre-pandemic.
OECD opined that with or without the second outbreak of the coronavirus, the economic consequences would be long-lasting and severe.
If the second wave of infections is averted, the global economy would likely contract by 6% this year and grow by 5.4% next year. If the second wave hits, the contraction would be at 7.6%, and in 2021 the economy would rebound by only 2.8%.
OECD estimated all member countries to be hit by recession in 2020, with many in double-digit recession. The organization also mentioned the long-lasting impact of the crisis, which includes a fall in living standards, high unemployment, and weak investment.
The US would post a 7.3% GDP decline if the second wave does not come and a whopping 8.5% if it does. The Eurozone would post a decrease by more than 9% in case of a single hit, and 11.5% if the second wave breaks out.
The UK is likely to be hit hardest, with its economy probably contracting 11.5% in an optimistic scenario and 14% in a pessimistic one.
China and India will be relatively less affected, with a decrease of 3.7% and 7.3% respectively in the case of a double hit and 2.6% and 3.7% in the case of a single one. Turkey’s economy is expected to shrink by 4.8% this year if a second hit is avoided but by 8.1% if a second wave occurs.
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Published on June 12, 2020 5:18 PM (GMT+8)Last Updated on June 12, 2020 5:18 PM (GMT+8)
