The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case projects US energy consumption to grow by an average annual rate of 0.3% through 2050. EIA attributed the relatively slow growth in energy consumption to improved efficiency in the end-user sector.
On the other hand, US energy production is expected to register robust growth over the projection period. Under EIA’s reference case, crude oil and natural gas output in the US will reach historically high levels through 2050. US oil production is expected to reach its peak through the mid-2020s and will remain at around 14.0 million bpd through the mid-2040s. Meanwhile, the dry natural gas output will continue to increase to 45 trillion cubic feet by 2050.
The AEO2020 projects US electricity generation from renewable sources will jump to 38% of total generation by 2050 from 19% last year. Solar will account for 46% of overall US electricity generation from renewables by 2050, compared to 14% contribution in 2019. Plant retirements will prompt a decline in coal and nuclear generation through the mid-2020s. However, their generation will be steady over the longer term, EIA said.
The outlook predicts US energy-related CO2 emissions to grow at a modest rate in the 2030s. The retirement of coal-fired power plants has helped the US in cutting its energy-related CO2 emissions. The emissions are expected to pick up the pace again after 2030 due to increased energy demand from the transportation and industrial sectors. However, EIA projects it will stay below the 2019 level through 2050.
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Published on January 31, 2020 1:58 AM (GMT+8)Last Updated on January 31, 2020 1:58 AM (GMT+8)
