AlwaysFree: China’s GDP Growth Seen Higher than US

As the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, global economic growth would see lasting shifts that would push China even more to the forefront.

Using data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bloomberg calculated that China’s proportion in the worldwide economic growth would soar to 27.7% in 2025, from 2021’s 26.8%. The US share was 17% lower than China’s in 2025, and 15% lower than the 2021 expectation.

Next year, India, Germany, and Indonesia round out the top five largest growth engines.

IMF predicted the world gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 4.4% in 2020, an improvement from the 4.9% drop seen in June. For 2021, the fund estimated growth of 5.2%.

In 2021, China is seen to grow by 8.2%, makeup for more than one-quarter of global growth. The US is likely to go up by 3.1%, which, in purchasing power parity terms, account for 11.6% of global growth.

By 2025, the cumulative loss in output compared to the pre-pandemic projected path is predicted to grow to USD28 trillion. Five countries with the highest coronavirus death count, the US, Brazil, India, Mexico, and the UK, is estimated to face a total GDP drop of close to USD1.8 trillion in nominal terms and USD2.1 trillion after having been adjusted for differences in purchasing power.

Gita Gopinath, IMF’s director of research, commented, “While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain.” She added that 90 million people are estimated to fall into extreme deprivation in 2020, the first time in more than twenty years.

The persistent output losses indicate a major setback to living standards versus the pre-pandemic days. In January, before the global outbreak of the coronavirus, the IMF forecast the global growth this year to be at 3.3% and in 2021 to be at 3.4%.

Now, with the exception of China where output is expected to exceed 2019 levels this year, the advanced economies, emerging market, and developing economies are set to see output below 2019 levels.

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