quarterlyssessments-q2-2020-india-pvc-prices

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Local and import offers firmer after build-up of positive sentiment
Demand picked up after lockdown relaxations
Outlook in Q3 highly depends on severity of monsoon season and Coronavirus outbreak

SSESSMENTS.COM data showed that India PVC market gained traction moving towards the end of Q2 2020 after a mediocre performance in April amid the coronavirus pandemic. In the first half of April, SSESSMENTS.COM noted that transactions only came from essential products which were supporting the lockdown in India since March 24. Going into the second half of April, the leading Indian PVC producer announced price protection in a bid to improve domestic sales. At that moment, local prices retreated to below INR70,000/ton-level ($939/ton) with localized cargoes from Far East Asia and Southeast Asia following behind.

Market activities resumed early May as the government applied new lockdown rules in which regions are grouped in green, yellow and red areas based on severity of coronavirus impact. However, the development was still responded negatively, in which local ethylene-based PVC prices were corrected down by INR3,500/ton ($46/ton). Market activities started to show positive movement in the second week of May as relaxation on the lockdown rules was applied with the leading PVC producer made a total increase of INR7,000/ton ($93/ton) at the end of May. For localized cargoes in May, SSESSMENTS.COM pricing database showed offers also went up following the price changes on local cargoes.

With businesses embracing remaining time between re-opening after lockdown and before monsoon kicks in, India PVC market recorded an upswing with an increase of INR2,000/ton per week for local and localized cargoes during the first half of June. SSESSMENTS.COM observed that the market then started to retreat in the second half of June. Offers from the leading Indian PVC producer still can be found at INR73,000/ton ($979/ton), INR5,500/ton ($73/ton) higher compared to offers in early June. For localized cargoes, offers for cargoes from East Europe, Far East Asia, and Southeast Asia were available between INR71,000-73,000/ton ($952-979/ton).

From the import market, considering the VCM price around $400/ton-level in April and ample supply on traders and producers’ end by that time, some sources pointed out that offers for May shipment PVC cargoes to India market should be below $700/ton-level on CIF basis. These levels were seen towards the end of the month for Russian cargoes, available between $600-625/ton with deals concluded at $600/ton on CIF basis. Meanwhile, the leading Taiwanese PVC producer made a decision to skip May shipment offers to the country due to the extended lockdown. A positive development then happened in May as import offers for June shipments from the leading Taiwanese PVC producer surfaced at $740/ton on LC at sight, CIF Nhava Sheva port before volume discount. Taiwanese producer’s then informed SSESSMENTS.COM that for July shipment, there was an increase by $100/ton as compared to June shipment, however, as most customers already purchased in big quantities in the previous month, the buyers reduced the buying quantity or skip procurements.

In general, demand was sluggish as trading activities were winding down in April since most downstream factories in the country were forced to halt production until further notice during the nationwide lockdown. Demand for PVC in India then improved week by week during May. More and more manufacturers resumed operation after the government lifted nationwide lockdown restrictions. In the first two weeks of the month, the production rate of the converters in the orange and green zone increased up to 70-80% for the small ones and 50-70% for the big ones. Coming into the end of June, an uptrend from May starting to dim. The main cause was due to lockdown still imposed in some areas, and the restriction of movement caused a lack of manpower. Also, the monsoon started descending around India in the second half of June. Although demand from the agriculture sector started to show signs of slowing down, SSESSMENTS.COM noted that most pipe manufacturers still run at a reasonable rate to build up the inventory for sales after the rainy season ends. Talking about supply, shipment disruption was reported throughout April due to lockdown. High inventory was also reported at this time by traders and producers since downstream converters cannot absorb the supply as a result of temporary shut down in production. With demand pick up going into May, the availability of materials in the market was limited due to fewer import cargoes entering the country. In June, some areas such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu still faced extended lockdown, causing a shortage of workforce which also led to logistic disruption.

Talking about demand outlook, healthy projection is predicted to last until the rainy season begins at the start of Q3. With end-product demand slowing down amid monsoon, most players voiced out their expectation to SSESSMENTS.COM that the price should be lower in the local as well as import market.

Transactions for local/localized ethylene-based PVC in April on cash, EXW basis and excluding 18% GST in all terms

Origin	Transaction Type	Offers (INR/ton)	Equivalent in USD/ton	Delivery Location
India	Offer Given	66,000-72,000	885-966	Mumbai
India	Offer Received	64,000-72,000	858-966	Mumbai
India	Offer Received	68,900	924	Delhi
India	Offer Received	68,000	912	Kolkata
India	Purchased	65,000*	872	India
Russia	Offer Given	61,500-62,000	825-831	Delhi
South Korea	Offer Given	65,000-66,000	872-885	Delhi
Taiwan	Offer Given	66,000-67,000	885-898	Mumbai
Taiwan	Offer Given	65,000-66,000	872-885	Delhi
Thailand	Offer Given	61,500-62,000	825-831	Delhi
Thailand	Purchased	64,000	858	Chennai
Ukraine	Offer Received	63,000	845	Mumbai

Description: *FD basis

Transactions for import ethylene-based PVC in April, CIF India Main Port basis

Origin	Transaction Type	Offers (USD/ton)	Payment Term
Central Asia	Offer Received	620*-625	LC at sight
Central Asia	Purchased	600*	LC 90 days
Central Asia	Sold	625	LC 90 days
Far East Asia	Buy Idea	680-700	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Offer Given	810-820	LC 90 days
Far East Asia	Offer Received	650-810	LC at sight
North America	Offer Received	550*	LC at sight
North America	Offer Received	620-650	LC 90 days

Description: *May shipments

Transactions for local/localized ethylene-based PVC in May on cash, EXW basis and excluding 18% GST in all terms

Origin	Transaction Type	Offers (INR/ton)	Equivalent in USD/ton	Delivery Location
India	Offer Given	63,000-69,000	845-925	Cuddalore
India	Offer Given	62,000-63,500	831-852	Delhi
India	Offer Given	62,500-68,500	838-919	Mumbai
India	Offer Given	73,500	986	Ahmedabad
India	Offer Received	63,000	845	Mumbai
India	Offer Received	65,000	872	Kolkata
India	Purchased*	62,000-64,000	831-858	Bengaluru
India	Sold	63,000-69,000	845-925	Cuddalore
India	Sold	73,000	979	Ahmedabad
Iran	Purchased	58,500	784	Mumbai
Japan	Purchased	61,000	818	Chennai
Russia	Offer Given	59,500-63,000	798-845	Mumbai
Russia	Offer Given	61,500	825	Ahmedabad
Russia	Offer Given	61,000	818	Delhi
Russia	Offer Received	71,000	952	Mumbai
Russia	Sell Idea	61,500-62,000	825-831	Delhi
Russia	Sold	61,500	825	Ahmedabad
Russia	Sold	63,000	845	Mumbai
South Korea	Offer Given	63,000-74,000	845-992	Delhi
South Korea	Offer Received	72,000	966	Mumbai
South Korea	Sell Idea	65,000-66,000	872-885	Delhi
South Korea	Sell Idea	71,000-73,000	952-979	Mumbai
South Korea	Sold	71,000	952	Delhi
Taiwan	Offer Given	63,000	845	Delhi
Taiwan	Offer Given	62,000-63,000	831-845	Mumbai
Taiwan	Offer Received	72,000	966	Mumbai
Taiwan	Sell Idea	65,000-66,000	872-885	Delhi
Taiwan	Sell Idea	71,000-73,000	952-979	Mumbai
Taiwan	Sold	62,750-63,000	841-845	Mumbai
Thailand	Bid Received	70,500	945	Delhi
Thailand	Offer Given	61,000-74,000	818-992	Delhi
Thailand	Offer Given	67,000-68,000	898-912	Mumbai
Thailand	Offer Received	65,000	872	Chennai
Thailand	Purchased	61,000	818	Chennai
Thailand	Sell Idea	61,500-62,000	825-831	Delhi
Ukraine	Offer Given	60,000	805	Mumbai
Ukraine	Purchased	70,500	945	Nhava Sheva
USA	Purchased	70,000	939	Chennai

Description: *FD basis

Transactions for import ethylene-based PVC in May, CIF India Main Port basis

Origin	Transaction Type	Offers (USD/ton)	Payment Term
Central Asia	Offer Given	700	LC at sight
Central Asia	Offer Received	620-740	LC at sight
Europe	Offer Received	690-730	LC at sight
Europe	Offer Received	650-700	LC 90 days
Europe	Sold	700-710	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Buy Idea	680-720	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Offer Given	730-760	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Offer Received	730-760	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Purchased	740	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Sell Idea	720-750	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Sold	730-760	LC at sight
Southeast Asia	Offer Received	730-755	LC at sight
Southeast Asia	Purchased	760	LC at sight
Southeast Asia	Sold	740-760	LC at sight

Transactions for local/localized ethylene-based PVC in June on cash, EXW basis and excluding 18% GST in all terms

Origin	Transaction Type	Offers (INR/ton)	Equivalent in USD/ton	Delivery Location
India	Offer Given	69,000-71,000	925-952	Cuddalore
India	Offer Given	74,000	992	Delhi
India	Offer Given	68,500-73,500	919-986	Mumbai
India	Offer Received	72,000	966	Mumbai
India	Purchased**	70,500-73,000	945-979	Bengaluru
India	Purchased	69,500-72,000	932-966	Mumbai
India	Sold	69,000	925	Cuddalore
India	Sold	70,500-73,500	945-986	Mumbai
Japan	Offer Given	71,000-72,000	952-966	Delhi
Japan	Offer Received	73,000-74,000	979-992	Kolkata
Japan	Purchased	76,000	1,019	Kolkata
Japan	Purchased	70,000-72,500	939-972	Mumbai
Mexico	Offer Given	69,000	925	Mumbai
Russia	Offer Given	72,000	966	Ahmedabad
Russia	Offer Given	71,000-75,000	952-1,006	Delhi
Russia	Offer Given	69,000-72,000	925-966	Mumbai
Russia	Purchased	70,500	945	Mumbai
South Korea	Offer Given	70,000-73,000	939-979	Ahmedabad
South Korea	Offer Given*	71,000	952	Ahmedabad
South Korea	Offer Given	74,000	992	Chennai
South Korea	Offer Given	71,500-76,000	959-1,019	Delhi
South Korea	Offer Given	71,000-74,000	952-992	Mumbai
South Korea	Offer Received	72,000-73,000	966-979	Mumbai
South Korea	Sold	72,000-72,500	966-972	Mumbai
Taiwan	Offer Given	70,000-73,000	939-979	Ahmedabad
Taiwan	Offer Given*	71,000	952	Ahmedabad
Taiwan	Offer Given	71,000-76,000	952-1,019	Delhi
Taiwan	Offer Given	70,000-74,000	939-992	Mumbai
Taiwan	Offer Given	72,000-74,000	966-992	Nhava Sheva
Taiwan	Sold	72,000-72,500	966-972	Mumbai
Thailand	Offer Given	71,000	952	Mumbai
Thailand	Offer Received	70,000	939	Mumbai
Thailand	Purchased	70,500	945	Mumbai
Ukraine	Offer Given	71,000-72,000	952-966	Mumbai
Ukraine	Offer Received	75,000	1,006	Chennai
USA	Offer Received	72,000-73,000	966-979	Mumbai

Description: *offers on 30 days credit term; **FD basis

Transactions for import ethylene-based PVC in June, CIF/CFR India Main Port basis

Origin	Transaction Type	Offers (USD/ton)	Payment Term
Europe	Offer Given**	780-820	LC 90 days
Europe	Offer Received	770-780	LC at sight
Europe	Offer Received	820-850	LC 90 days
Europe	Offer Received**	850	LC 90 days
Europe	Price List*	850	LC 90 days
Far East Asia	Bid Given	870	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Offer Given	800-900	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Offer Given	850-860	LC 90 days
Far East Asia	Offer Received*	820-850	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Offer Received**	820-880	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Price List	830-850	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Price List**	845	LC 60 days
Far East Asia	Price List**	840	LC 90 days
Far East Asia	Purchased	830-840	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Purchased**	820	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Sell Idea	830-890	LC at sight
Far East Asia	Sold	730-900	LC at sight
Latin America	Offer Given	780	LC 90 days
Latin America	Offer Received	770	LC at sight
Latin America	Offer Received***	805	LC 90 days
Latin America	Purchased	770	LC at sight
Middle East	Buy Idea	785-790	LC at sight
Middle East	Price List	820	LC at sight
Middle East	Sold	790-800	LC at sight
North America	Offer Given	760-800	LC at sight
North America	Offer Received**	760-800	LC at sight
North America	Offer Received**	780-800	LC 90 days
North America	Purchased	720	LC at sight
South Africa	Offer Received**	810	LC 90 days
Southeast Asia	Offer Received	780	LC at sight
Southeast Asia	Offer Received**	860-880	LC at sight

Description: *June-July shipments offers; **July shipment offers; ***July-August shipment offers

Tags: Asia Pacific,English,ISC,India,PVC,Quarterly

Published on July 7, 2020 11:32 AM (GMT+8)
Last Updated on September 16, 2020 8:58 PM (GMT+8)

QuarterlySSESSMENTS: Q2 2020 India PVC Prices

Author: SSESSMENTS

QuarterlySSESSMENTS: Q2 2020 India PVC Prices

Author: SSESSMENTS

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